Notes from CTIA show this week in Orlando

I was fortunate to be selected by the AT&T Developers program to present the Androiter application at CTIA this week.  We were not selected as one of the two finalists in the open category, but the presentation went well and the judges were impressed with the application and asked many intelligent wide ranging questions.  I was impressed with the quality of the judges and their familiarity with the terminology and issues in Healthcare generically and remote monitoring specifically. 

The CTIA show was chock full of interesting and exciting new products relevant for Mobile Health.  There were new Android Phones and Tablets on display from Samsung, HTC, and LG.  Motorola was also showing their new Xoom but that seems almost old at this point since it was introduced at CES in the first week of January.  Samsung had both their new  8.9" and 10.1" Galaxy Tabs  under glass and not available for hands on testing.  They had units that we could test and play with but they are not the ones that will be released in early June.  Apparently the iPad2 introduction caused Samsung to make last minute changes to the dimensions and pricing of these 2 new Tabs.  I don't know if you caught the news but one of the executive VP's at Samsung was quoted in Korea that the iPad2 was exposing Samsung's Tablets as inferior and requiring rework.  So, the units we had our hands on worked quite well but the ones under glass were thinner and sleeker and will be less costly once released.  It is amazing that Samsung will be able to retool these two Tabs that quickly.  Overall I was impressed with the new Tablets and Honeycomb is much more appropriate than the Froyo on the tablet.  Samsung was also showcasing their new Android Player PDA's which were 4" and 5" Galaxy S phones without a CDMA or GSM phone radio.  These were gorgeous devices, more like Google Nexus S than anything else I have seen.  They came in white and black.  Since they are the Android equivalent of an iPod Touch, they will likely be priced in the same range or slightly less than $229-$399 based upon memory.   Although I understand Samsung's desire to match up product for product with Apple on the most popular consumer electronic categories this product will not be very cost effective in the Mobile Health arena.  We are currently buying LG Optimus phones for $150 with no contract and using them as PDA's or phones with a low cost SIM plan from Virgin Mobile.  When comparing the Samsung Player to the LG Optimus, the only real advantage for the Player is likely to be battery life which will be difficult to justify for the additional money.  Speaking of cheap android phones for Mobile Health, I talked to 3 or 4 Chinese manufacturers who were offering very attractive Android phones that were significantly lower cost than the LG Optimus.  I plan to order sample quantities of as many as possible and test them.  If we can acquire phones for <$100 and negotiate low cost data only plans it should significantly increase the systems we can put in the hands of the poor and disabled groups who are hard pressed to pay for premium phones.  Speaking of LG, they probably had the most interesting phones at the show.  They introduced their new LG Optimus 2X with the Nvidia Tegra 2 dual core processor.  It is an attractive phone that sets new benchmarks for speedy performance.  LG was also demonstrating the LG Thrill, the first 3D Smartphone.  It was really amazing.  I am not a huge 3D fan and I don't know any applications in Mobile Health that are relevant but it certainly was cool.  I will cover more phones, Tablets and other medical discoveries from CTIA in my next post.

Congratulations! Your Androiter app was selected to move on to the second round of the AT&T Open Call contest at CTIA Wireless 2011, Orlando, FL.

That was the message I found in my email this week.  I was not planning on attending the CTIA show this year due to the crush of work in front of us preparing for upcoming pilots of our system, but duty calls!.  On a more serious note, it is quite an honor to be selected by AT&T judges and we intend to put on an impressive demonstration of the system at the meeting next week.  We will perform a live demonstration of all aspects of the system including real time vital signs data collection of Body Temperature, Blood Pressure, Blood Glucose, Blood Oxygen,  Pulse Rate, Weight and ECG.  In addition to vital signs we will demonstrate Emergency Alerts via SMS Text, Instant Video Conferencing and Patient Education all delivered seamlessly on the Android platform.  I look forward to the contest and hope to be selected for the final round.  I will keep you posted on our progress from CTIA in Orlando next week.  

Silly

I will have a more serious post later today, but I will use this post to introduce my new alterego image.

This goes well with the Androiter Logo introduced at CES 2011.

Which then evolved to Dr. Androiter for HIMSS 11

I saw a report by RBC Capital Markets that really captured my attention and is relevant to this discussion.  Check out this chart:

This is fascinating: 

World's Population is 6.8 Billion People

Mobile Subscribers are 5.1 Billion

There are only 394 Million Smartphone users today!!

That equates to less than 8% of all subscribers are Smartphone users.  With the cost of Android Phones quickly moving to the price of feature phones it appears obvious that Smartphone growth is in the earliest days of its infancy.  Right now it is only the wealthiest early adopters with Smartphones.  Can you imagine the installed base in a few years with continued price decreases and build out of the 3G and 4G Networks?  It is not hard to imagine several billion Smartphone Subscribers in a few years time.  From a Mobile Health perspective this is a very powerful trend.  Studies from Pew Research and others indicate that minorities and other lower income groups in the US rely on Smartphones to access the internet more than higher income groups.  As the trends towards Smartphone adoption increases installed base across all patient populations, the poor, minorities and well healed will all have the opportunity to leverage the power of these phones to increase their access to mobile healthcare applications. 

Let's look at Android Adoption rates over the first 9 quarters since its release.  This graph is courtesy of Kleiner Perkins Mary Meeker.  When you look at this chart and put this adoption rate against the total market, I believe it gives you a glimpse of where the Android Smartphone market is going, towards explosive growth.  More on the growth of Android and how it will impact the Mobile Health Market next.

Android Adoption Rates and yesterday's announcement of the iPad2

A friend and former colleague asked me today if any Android Tablets would pose serious competition to the iPad2?  My answer surprised him.  It is my position that (selfishly) it doesn't matter, but no Android Tablet Maker will become a significant competitor to Apple and it's near perfect tablet offerings any time soon.  As an owner of both the first iPad and the first serious Android tablet, the Galaxy Tab, there is no comparison between them as consumer media devices.  The iPad display is better, the larger screen is better, UI is better, App store is better,  the ease of use is better and at the risk of being portrayed as an Apple fan boy it is the best computing device I have ever purchased.  Little surprise that it is recognized as the single most successful consumer electronic device in history.  Apple sold nearly 15 million units from April to December generating almost $10 Billion in revenue.  Ok, I got carried away there a bit, my point was that Apple is the de facto leader in tablets and with yesterday's iPad2 they are poised to maintain that leadership position for 2011 and beyond the " Year of the Tablet".  Now, back to my friend's question and my answer that surprised him.  Motorola, Samsung, Toshiba, LG and every other serious Android Tablet maker will compete for a distant 2nd place and that is ok by me, as long as they make devices that perform well and are reasonably priced.  It is important that Android is well represented across the PDA, Smartphone, Tablet and TV categories so the operating system is not locked out of any vertical market, particularly Healthcare which is our focus.  The backbone of the Android movement is the Smartphone and at current adoption rates it is killing the iPhone and will be the dominant operating system globally.  This is a far more important category killer and will propel vertical market applications which at the risk of redundancy, particularly Healthcare which is my focus.  More on this subject soon.

Smartphone and Tablet Tipping Point Continued

So, the question posed is what does the dramatic shift away from PC's to more mobile Tablets and Smartphones mean to the emerging Mobile Health Market?  The first answer is that it is obviously not a negative trend for sure.  One of the key reasons Smartphones are growing so rapidly are the low price points that the Android Operating System has driven in the market.  Within 2 years of the first Android phone hitting the market, we have Cricket, Virgin Mobile and other MVNO's selling capable Android Smartphones for  $100-$150 with no long term commitment.   That trend will continue to some lower price points.  The good news for Mobile Health Application Developers is that the devices are not going to be a barrier to adoption.  Quite the contrary, there will be such a large installed base of consumers already carrying an Android phone who will be looking for meaningful applications that help them manage their health.  As the installed base grows and as the average age of the installed base increases there is a natural confluence of events and applications that we believe will  have a positive impact on Mobile Health Adoption. 

The Smartphone v. PC Tipping Point and Tablets

What about Tablets?  Where do they fit in the Smartphone-PC tipping point debate?  IDC did not count Tablet Shipments in Q4 2010 PC shipment numbers.  If they had, the numbers would have been much closer to all square.  It is obvious Acer and Microsoft's comments that Net book sales have been gutted by sales of Tablets.  Since 2011 has been dubbed the year of the tablet that is only going to hurt PC shipments at an increasing rate going forward.  Apple sold over 7 million iPads in Q4 2010, Samsung sold 2 million Galaxy Tablets, at that rate Apple and Samsung will sell almost 40 million Tablets in 2011.  That does not include entries from some serious competitors such as Motorola with its Xoom, Samsung with its new 10.1" Tablet, LG, and Toshiba and more.  Some analysts are predicting Tablet sales exceeding 50 million units.  That only underscores the premise that Q4 2010's Tipping point is permanent.  What does the move to Smartphones and Tablet mean to adoption of Mobile Health Systems?  That is a question that means a lot to me and to those I work with.